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Pete Rose in . . . The Nagging Question
2008-01-07 10:09
There’s a lot of voting going on lately, what with the New Hampshire primary and the announcement of the results of the Hall of Fame vote both happening tomorrow. I was going to spend the morning writing about the existential implications of a particularly light-hitting utility infielder from the 1970s named Luis Gomez, but I feel like getting into the voting frenzy instead, especially since the most likely candidates for this year’s official seal of baseball immortality come from the ranks of the Cardboard Gods. Some of the more deserving candidates, including Alan Trammel, Dale Murphy, and Tim Raines, started to become prominent just as my childhood was ending, but the other names expected to make the strongest showing in this year’s vote were in or at least entering their prime during my baseball card years: Jim Rice, Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson, and Bert Blyleven. I have no inside knowledge about this, and haven’t researched the reports of those who do, but if I had to guess I’d predict that Rice and Gossage get in tomorrow, with Blyleven a narrow miss. Whatever the result, it is sure to stir up controversy about the arbitrary nature of Hall of Fame voting. If Rice gets in, many will wonder why he’s in and, say, Dick Allen isn’t. If Blyleven doesn’t get in, many will wonder why he’s not in and, say, Don Sutton is. Why Lou Brock but not Tim Raines? Why Pee Wee Reese but not Alan Trammel? Why 1930s basher Chuck Klein but not 1990s basher Mark McGwire? (OK, that last question was kind of loaded, or perhaps even juiced, but the point is every player is a product of their times, more or less, and so why ignore the inflated numbers of the 1930s—a segregated era, no less—while completely discounting the inflated numbers of the 1990s?) You know, I don’t know the answer to any those questions. So instead of trying to answer them, I propose to pass the time today in the pursuit of determining which of the Cardboard Gods is most deserving of an even more arbitrary and ridiculous designation: Best Everyday Player of the 1970s. I got the idea for this designation a few days ago, during a discussion about Reggie Jackson on Bronx Banter. A participant in the discussion, williamnyy23, provided a list, via baseball-reference.com, of the top twelve OPS+ averages in the decade among players with at least 5,000 plate appearances (for more on OPS+ see baseball-reference.com’s glossary; basically, it is the best single statistic for reflecting a player’s worth as a hitter): 1 Willie Stargell 156 OPS+, 5083 plate appearances So I present that list to you, the voters, as the ballot for Best Everyday Player of the 1970s. But first, a few things:
Who gets your vote?
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Bob ApodacaBruce Boisclair Steve Henderson Dave Kingman Jerry Koosman Lee Mazzilli Len Randle Tom Seaver Craig Swan? Joe Torre New York Yankees
Wade BoggsRon Guidry Steve Howe Reggie Jackson, 1977 Tommy John, 1980 Alex Johnson Sparky Lyle Billy Martin Rudy May Gene Michael Thurman Munson Lou Piniella Luis Tiant, 1980 Cecil Upshaw Oakland A's
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To give some insight into why, let me just present without further comment, my favourite set of stats ever:
Johnny Bench played 45 career post-season games. All as a catcher.
In those 45 games, he himself stole six bases (and was caught once).
In those same 45 career post-season games, Johnny Bench allowed... six stolen bases.
And caught thirteen runners trying to steal.
And picked four more runners off base.
(OK, I said I wouldn't comment any further, but there is one more I can't resist... Bench's career postseason slugging percentage is exactly equal to that of a guy known better by the name "Mr. October".)
Rose - Rose + Bench = Bench.
Bench in a landslide thus far. Polls still open...
My vote, FWIW: Morgan.
Gotta be Stargell.
Signed,
Hopelessly Biased Pirate Fan
I could live with any of the three I mentioned, but I'd give the nod to Reg-gie.
Also, if you forget to limit the OPS+ leaders by plate appearances, Eduardo Rodriguez had a 1970's OPS+ of 1007.
I wonder what it would be like for young kids today if they grew up idolizing Barry Bonds, without any public knowledge about steroids and HGH. What if they grew up thinking he was nothing more than the best baseball player in an era of amazing baseball accomplishments? Imagine what it would then be like if they found out, a few years after he retired, that he had used performance-enhancing drugs during that time?
That said, how about a shout-out for Rod Carew? I can't vote for him for the best player of the 70's (I'd choose Reggie Jackson), but I'd like to nominate him for 2nd best. I feel lucky to have seen him play for the Angels.
I'm not sure how easy it would be, but I wonder what the list would like look if you used a + version of a weighted OPS, that is, OPS that properly weighs the contributions of OBP vs SLG - where you multiply OBP by 1.4 and then add SLG.
I know in the raw version, Stargell ends up with a wOPS of 1.074, Reggie 1.015, and Singleton .991 (just using 1970-1979). Going from that raw total to a + version is beyond my skills, however.
I wonder what it would be like for young kids today if they grew up idolizing Barry Bonds, without any public knowledge about steroids and HGH. What if they grew up thinking he was nothing more than the best baseball player in an era of amazing baseball accomplishments? Imagine what it would then be like if they found out, a few years after he retired, that he had used performance-enhancing drugs during that time?
That said, how about a shout-out for Rod Carew? I can't vote for him for the best player of the 70's (I'd choose Reggie Jackson), but I'd like to nominate him for 2nd best. I feel lucky to have seen him play for the Angels.
11 : Stretching the decade a little also really benefits Reggie, I think; he had monster seasons in both 1969 and 1980. He probably deserves my vote, but what can I do, I already cast my lot with singles-hitting Pete Rose. What was I thinking? I guess maybe Pete Rose is, in the context of this discussion, one of those one-issue candidates who make some noise early but who never really receive any serious consideration and disappear when the real choices start to get made. In that light, the one issue he represents here--that Games Played should be more highly valued as a statistic--is one that I'm glad to have supported. (Concession speech over.)
Pete Rose gets my Winston Churchill response: Never, never, never, never, never. Sure, he was a nice slappy singles hitter. He ran to first base on walks, and he made damn sure that everyone knew it. He was a mean-spirited, self-centered, arrogant prick who not only hustled but acted like he invented hustle.
You know what? Joe Morgan never mailed it in, either. He played every bit as hard, and he sure as hell contributed to his team's success every single day. He just didn't make as big a deal about it. Morgan was also a far better player than Rose, and I think that's one of the problems. Rose somehow gets credit for having lesser skills - even though Morgan maximized his every bit as much as Rose did.
Move the time frame 5 years earlier, and the most criminally underrated would be Jimmy Wynn.
You make a good argument for Morgan. He missed quite a bit more games than Rose, but it's hard to argue that his superior OPS+, excellent defense, and great baserunning didn't make up for those missed games.
In fact, I'd argue that with the passing of Joltin' Joe, it's between Mays and Rose for the title of Greatest Living Ballplayer.
As a Dodger fan, I really hate to admit that, but yeah, they're good enough to transcend my ultimate dislike of their respective teams.
As for Greatest Living Ballplayer, I think it would be between Mays and Aaron if you don't want to count Bonds. The list of top OPS+'s among living players is pretty interesting:
1. Bonds 182
2. McGwire 162
3. Musial 159
4. Frank Thomas 157
5. Dick Allen 156
Mays 156
7. Aaron 155
3 Reds on the list, no Dodgers and yet the Dodgers were somehow able to lose 3 World Series in the decade.
The oughts: Honus Wagner
The teens: Tris Speaker (but you tell Cobb that)
'20s: Ruth
'30s: Gehrig
'40s: Ted Williams (missed a big chunk of time--two-plus seasons, I think--in the war but still racked up a .400 season and two triple crown seasons)
'50s: Mantle (I think Ted Williams' Cooperstown plague mentions that he, Ted Williams, was awarded Player of the Decade for the '50s)
'60s: Mays
'70s: to be determined
Using the same 5000 plate appearance requirement, the OPS+ leader during the 1940's was the great Bill "Swish" Nicholson at 134. If you only make it 4000 PA, Williams beats Nicholson by 67 points. Musial was at 172 and DiMaggio was at 162.
I'll still take Mays as greatest living.
26 I will not tell Ty Cobb he wasn't the best player of the teens. And Hank Greenberg would like a word with you about your pick for the 1930s.
I live one block from Willie Stargell Field--should I vote for the hometown kid?
Reggie was my favorite player growing up, plus he was the star player on half the decade's World Series winners.
Then again, Morgan is also a local product, and he gets bonus points for playing a key defensive position.
Umm...umm...umm...I'll give it to...Reggie.
Pete, it should be noted, has more than one full seasons worth of PAs more than anyone else on the list, 838.
Can I weasel out and throw 1/2 votes to Morgan and Jackson? Morgan's middle IF position, slightly more playing time and big OBP compensating for Reggie's higher, more power-reliant OPS+?
"Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break I got. Yet today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth. I have been in ballparks for 17 years and have never received anything but kindness and encouragement from you fans. Look at these grand men. Which of you wouldn't consider it the highlight of his career just to associate with them for even one day?
"Sure, I'm lucky. Who wouldn't consider it an honor to have known Jacob Ruppert; also the builder of baseball's greatest empire, Ed Barrow; to have spent six years with that wonderful little fellow, Miller Huggins; then to have spent the next nine years with that outstanding leader, that smart student of psychology -- the best manager in baseball today, Joe McCarthy? Who wouldn't feel honored to have roomed with such a grand guy as Bill Dickey?
"Sure, I'm lucky. When the New York Giants, a team you would give your right arm to beat, and vice versa, sends you a gift -- that's something! When everybody down to the groundskeepers and those boys in white coats remember you with trophies -- that's something!
"When you have a wonderful mother-in-law who takes sides with you in squabbles against her own daughter -- that's something! When you have a father and mother who work all their lives so that you can have an education and build your body -- it's a blessing! When you have a wife who has been a tower of strength and shown more courage than you dreamed existed -- that's the finest I know!
"So I close in saying that I might have been given a bad break, but I have an awful lot to live for! Thank you.' "
Still moving 70 years later. That may have been the 1st movie I watched where tears flowed. Thanks for the whole speech.
The idea that he's anything like the greatest living ballplayer is ludicrous. Off the top of my head, Mays, Aaron, Musial, Morgan, Jackson, Bonds, Griffey, Ripken, Rodriguez, Schmidt, and Henderson are all far superior candidates -- and with a little Googling, I could come up with probably a half-dozen, if not a dozen, more. In essence, I agree that his hustle is overrated both in terms of actual effort expended toward winning rather than appearance, and in terms of how valuable an asset hustle actually is.
I severely disliked Pete Rose but he played the game harder then anyone I've ever seen. Every minute, no fake hustle.
No one got on base more times then Pete Rose in the history of the game. He wasn't just a singles machine, the man could take a walk and had over 1000 extra base hits.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/nsju
True. Of course, he also made more outs than anyone else in the history of the game - by a huge margin.
And to toss out some stats that are interesting to me (and I'm not a stat guy so this is only about 10 minutes of digging around on baseball reference):
Career leaders in runs created:
1. Barry Bonds 2892 L
2. Babe Ruth 2719 L
3. Stan Musial 2562 L
4. Hank Aaron 2552 R
5. Ty Cobb 2522 L
6. Ted Williams 2382 L
7. Willie Mays 2368 R
8. Lou Gehrig 2233 L
9. Pete Rose 2219 B
10. R.Henderson 2164 R
The name of the game is the team that scores the most runs wins, right? And they say that Musial was one of the most consistent hitters ever, right? Of his 3630 hits, 1815 game on the road and 1815 game at home. But enough hometown bias.
If I had to vote for the best player of the '70s, and seeing that I was born in '83 and don't care to much to go over all the stats, I'll throw some love Rod Carew's way, because he's the only one on that list that I ever heard the Beastie Boys rhyme about.
Long time lurker here - this site is one I check out every day.
I vote for the man who was not only a superstar baseball player, but in my view the epitome of the 1970's - Reggie Jax.
Before they rhymed Carew with Woo, they worked the player whose numbers tower over all others from the '70s into "Hey Ladies":
http://tinyurl.com/fxj35
Yeah, I'm a Yankees fan (though my vote is for Morgan, easily). But it was worth it just to hear those smug Dodgers whine about being jobbed instead of , y'know, going out and winning.
49 I don't know about Costas and Mantle, but I personally don't have a great opinion of Costas. I can't for the life of me figure out why, but I have never liked him. Maybe I don't like short people. I do, however, have the greatest respect for Joe Buck and I am sure he would rally for Musial at any given moment. But you bring up a good point? I've not lived in the St. Louis area for about 4 years, and since I've moved out I never hear about the Man except in references to Pujols as an heir. It's not like I live in another region or anything (I'm a short 3 hour trip up I-55), but the Man's reach has diminished for some reason. Unjustly so if I can be so assertive.
Meanwhile, back to the top at hand. My vote goes to Ken Singleton. After taking a closer look at the list, the amazing thing is that Ken was a rookie in 1970, and didn't play full time for the first two years of the decade. His lowest on base percentage in a full season in the 70s is .363 in 1972, his first season of more than 140 games.
.342/.474/.690, Career OPS+ of 207
94-46, 2.77, Career ERA+ of 122
53 : Yeah, the pitching puts Ruth in a category all his own among major leaguers. The only guy who can compare is Martin Dihigo, the Hall of Fame Negro League pitching/hitting star (I believe Dihigo also was versatile enough to play every position, too).
Reggie: 7 1/2 votes
Morgan: 7 1/2
Singleton: 2
Rose: 2 (plus two "never, ever" votes)
Carew: 1 (plus a "second-place" vote)
Stargell: 1
Bench: 1
I'm surprised Bench only has one vote so far. He probably shows up on more all-time best rosters than anyone else from that era.
In other news, the Hall will announce the results of their vote at 2 p.m. EST.
My Dad grew up where they threw turkey's off of city hall, and thus was a Cards fan. I got to hear a bit about Stan the Man.
53 that still boggles my mind.
Reg-gie...Reg-gie...Reg-gie...
The only candy bar that tells you how good it is.
I had no idea Bob Watson was so good. The only thing I knew about him (besides being a former GM) was that he scored the one millionth run in MLB history (thank you, Topps!).
Also cool to see Singleton, Bobby Bonds, and Cesar Cedeño on the list.
We will always have 81.
By my count were even.
LA Dodgers 63 and 81
Yankee's 77 and 78
Maybe someday we can break the tie but I don't expect to see the Yankee's in the World Series for quite a while.
It was a great play by Reggie and a not so good play by Russel.
58
Bob Watson used to crush the Dodgers. I hate to look it up on baseball reference and find out I'm wrong.
Geez, look at Ken Singleton there. Where does Staub rank on that list?
The Play Index on Baseball-Reference.com is free through January 11. Here is the full search:
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/P8NN
Rusty Staub is 18th with a 125 OPS+ in 6160 PA.
What I found interesting was that Rose had way more PA in the 1970s than anyone else. He had 838 more PA than the #2 guy, Bobby Bonds!
I took the liberty of looking up Bob Watson against the Dodgers. Here are the numbers:
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/6Sx9
From 1970-79, he hit .313/.385/.480 against LA, which is better than his overall 70s line of .301/.368/.454, so he crushed LA at an OPS+ of much better than 132!
Plus Rose had an amazing 7399 PA in the 70s. The have only been 64 individual seasons of 740+ PA (Rose himself had five of them), and Rose averaged that amount over the entire decade.
Amazing.
Also, Pete Rose had 8862 PA from 1969-1980, a 12-year span (738.5/year).
In Cal Ripken's most prolific (PA) 12-year stretch (1982-1993), he had 8485 PA (707/year), with a high of 726 (Rose had higher than that in 11 of this 12 years listed above).
IIRC, Rose always hit leadoff. To use your analogy to that team-stealer who's name I refuse to use, that guy usually hit 3rd, sometimes 4th. Lineup slot alone gives Rose anywhere from 60-80 more PAs than the team-stealer a year, or 600-800 more PAs than him over a decade (720-960 more PAs for a 12 year span).
Getting a lot of at bats when your good is a good thing, getting alot of of at bats when your Juan Pierre is a bad thing.
But Pete Rose wasn't Juan Pierre in the 1970s...he was one of the top hitters in baseball. I was just pointing out that while Rose was good on a rate basis, his enormous amount of PAs (while good) created tremendous value for him.
On the other hand, his appearing in 99% of his team's games for a decade is something he did all on his own.
Plate appearances: not so good an idnicator of worth
Percentage of team's games played: Maybe a way to put percentage-based numbers such as OPS+ in context and highlight the value of a guy such as Rose who played at a very high level in virtually all of his team's games. I'm interested to hear whether people think I'm sniffing glue on this one or not.
Of course, I also deduct points for Rose's prickitude. I've loathed him for 35 years or so, probably more than any other ballplayer. Fortunately, Morgan's second career as a startlingly brain-dead broadcaster doesn't figure in these calculations.
Singleton, btw, might have a case for best hitter - though I doubt it - and certainly for nice guy, underrated, prototypical Weaver player and so on. But he was maybe a fair-to-middling outfielder(with a pretty good arm), and he was slow as mud. Not in Morgan's league as an overall player.
I was not being critical of your comment, I was using your data to comment on a previous comment that 73 references.
Singleton is an excellent play-by-play guy - but of course YES uses him far more often as a color commentator, which he's not as good at. They'd rather use Michael Kay at p-b-p, even though he's not very good.
The year before last, someone missed a flight and Singleton had to do a game solo. It was the best broadcast I've seen in years.
I actually also liked Jim Katt.
By the way the best ballplayer with a gazillion letters in the 1st month of the 70's decade was Billy Grabarkewitz. Hands down.
Clinton and McCain in New Hampshire
Goose Gossage in Immortality
And, with polls open indefinitely, Morgan and Reggie tied with 8.5 votes each, followed by Bench, Singleton, and Rose with 2 each.
That's all well and good, but it ignores positional adjustments, defense, and baserunning, which all make up a good portion of Morgan's case as an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Rose played the majority of his games in the 70s at an outfield corner: Five seasons as a left or right fielder, four as a third baseman, and one as a first baseman. Thus, the baseline against which he competes is higher -- while the OPS+ of each player is superficially similar, the positional scarcity at second base makes Morgan a more valuable player. Morgan was also an excellent defender at second base, for which he gets credit that a man playing at the other end of the defensive spectrum doesn't earn.
The most massive difference is going to be baserunning, however. It's hard to know from a cursory review of the stat sheets to know just how effective Rose was as a baserunner, but the evidence points to the possibility that his speed simply limited his ability: He did not try to steal very often, and when he did, he was not good at it. Rose was notoriously hustle-y. Once on the basepaths, how much did he try to stretch his unexceptional speed, and did that hurt his team when he ran into outs? I suppose one with more time on his hands could find out, but my guess would be, from antectdotal evidence alone, kind of a lot.
Morgan, on the other hand, was an exceptional baserunner, stealing often (as many as 67 steals twice) and well (never caught more than 17 times in any one season) throughout his prime, and running more conservatively but just as intelligently as he aged. He was just a faster runner. Is that Pete Rose's fault? No. But it still makes Joe Morgan a better player.
So: Do we want to punish Pete Rose for his versatility and lack of speed? On the one hand, you never want to punish a player who is willing to take the field at any position just to get out there, but the fact of the matter is that Rose played a variety of positions that are reserved for the worst fielders on the team, and many guys before and since -- Yaz, Frank Robinson, and Stan Musial all come to mind, but so do any of a number of lesser players like Lance Berkman -- have been able to handle all of them well enough to stay on the field. As to his lack of speed, yes, we do want to punish him for that. It may not be his fault, but it still affects his value.
81 : Thanks for that analysis, Voxter. Yeah, I have to admit Morgan was better. (I think I've mostly been playing devil's advocate this whole time anyway.) Even if Rose's durability evened the playing field a little, Morgan still trumps him with his defense and baserunning.
I would argue with the implication that Rose was a detriment to his team as a fielder. He was not nearly as valuable as Morgan, of course, but by most accounts he played left field and right field well (and, with respect to errors, near flawlessly) and also played third base well. (I'm not as familiar with his reputation as a second baseman--that was before my time.) And his almost unprecedented flexibility, which allowed the team to put him where they needed him most, again and again and again, is along with his durability another underrated element of his value to his team, I think.
The greatest heads-up, clutch plays I've ever seen were Reggie's hip move, Jeter's flip toss, and Rose's catch.
But he was still a prick.
[84}: Right, I realized I was kinda putting words in your mouth not long after I posted that. Sorry 'bout that. Incidentally, I think he actually played third AFTER he played outfield.
But if I were making a vote based upon, say, performance, rather than cred, it would begrudgingly go to Joe Morgan.
I didn't vote for Bench because of the "everyday" criterion. Sparky Anderson tried to keep Bench's bat in the lineup by playing him at other positions (Bench at 3rd was a weird sight), but in the second half of the 70s Bench played about the same amount as normal catchers, not playing in about 12 - 20% of the games.
Would Reggie Jackson's hip interference play have been so "heads-up" if the 1B umpire had had the balls to make the correct call? (As Toy Cannon alludes to in 59 , Bill Russell should have thrown that ball at Reggie's noggin - a sizeable target.
Joe Morgan: 10.5 votes
Reggie: 8.5 votes
Carew: 2 votes
Bench: 2 votes
Singleton: 2 votes
Rose: 2 votes
Stargell: 1 vote
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